BI Has Lowered Interest, Can RI Out of the Recession?
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20 November 2020

BI Has Lowered Interest, Can RI Out of the Recession?

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The government's move that has not yet announced the tobacco excise tariff (CHT), aka cigarette excise, even though it has entered the end of this year, has been responded positively by the increase in cigarette issuers' shares on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).

However, based on IDX data, this government's 'nervousness' actually caused cigarette stocks to come under selling pressure from foreign investors, aka net sell at the close of trading last Thursday afternoon (19/11/2020.

Trade data notes that cigarette stocks have indeed strengthened due to buying action from domestic, not foreign investors.

There are five cigarette issuers on the IDX, namely PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM), PT HM Sampoerna Tbk (HMSP), PT Wismilak Inti Makmur Tbk (WIIM), PT Bentoel International Investama Tbk (RMBA), and PT Indonesia Tobacco Tbk (ITIC). .

GGRM shares rose 4.78% at the level of Rp 44,925 / share with a transaction value of Rp 224.92 billion. But foreign investors were recorded to have left IDR 34.35 billion. In the last month, foreigners recorded a net sell of Rp 146.23 billion.
HMSP's shares also rose 5.05% at the level of Rp 1,560 / share, with a transaction value of Rp 380.36 billion. Again, foreigners also recorded a net sell of IDR 26.17 billion, and in the last month foreigners left IDR 220.29 billion.

Then WIIM's shares rose 4.63% to IDR 565 / share with a transaction value of IDR 53.96 billion. Fortunately, foreigners entered Rp. 915.53 million, but in the last month WIIM shares were released by foreigners at Rp. 4.48 billion.

Furthermore, RMBA's shares rose 4.89% to the level of IDR 386 / share with a transaction value of IDR 282.23 billion. Foreigners sold Bentoel shares for Rp. 82.99 million, and in the last month also sold for Rp. 264.99 million.

Then ITIC shares also rose 3.68% to Rp 845 / share, with a transaction value of Rp 2.28 billion. Foreigners only enter Rp.14.60 million. ITIC shares have the lowest capitalization among the four other cigarette issuers, namely only Rp. 794 billion.

Compared with the GGRM market cap of Rp. 86.44 trillion, RMBA of Rp. 14.05 trillion, WIIM of Rp. 1.19 trillion, and the largest is HMSP, which is Rp. 181.46 trillion.

Nearly a month has passed, so far there has been no sign that an increase in cigarette excise rates will be announced. The government is believed to be still looking for the right formulation to determine the amount of the tariff.

Earlier this week, the Presidential Staff Office (KSP) received an audience of representatives from the Indonesian Tobacco Farmers Association (APTI). They conveyed their aspirations to the Palace regarding the cigarette excise policy.

"There may be more in 2021, but we don't know what the increase will be," said Presidential Chief of Staff Moeldoko at the meeting.

Moeldoko ensured that the government would hear complaints and input from APTI as the tobacco industry business actor. Input from the association will be taken into account by the government in determining the amount of cigarette excise.

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani also emphasized that the government is trying to be fair in determining a policy. However, it cannot be denied that there are always those who are pros and cons.

One of them is the excise tariff for cigarettes. Even though the policies that have been taken by the government have considered all aspects including the industry, there are still some who do not agree with the policy.

"So imagine, on the one hand the demonstration asked not to go up, on the one hand someone asked to go up really high," said Sri Mulyani.

According to him, trying to find a balance point in the formulation of cigarette excise is not an easy matter. The government emphasizes that every cigarette excise policy is made so as not to harm or benefit a mere handful of parties.

"We just try to balance it, meaning that no one feels he has won the most. So we will continue to conduct studies," he said.

Based on information compiled by CNBC Indonesia, the government in recent weeks has held a meeting to find the right formulation for determining cigarette excise rates.

The news is circulating, the government is proposing cigarette excise rates in the range of 13% - 20%. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance is said to have proposed that the increase in cigarette excise rates be around 17% for next year.

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